早就有教授告诉你了特朗普是下一任美国总统！

　　这个结果出乎你的意料吧?早就有人预测，特朗普是下一任美国总统，这个人就是美利坚大学教授艾伦·李奇曼(Allan Lichtman)，自1984年以来，他对每届美国总统的预测次次正确。艾伦·李奇曼是一位专门研究总统的历史学家，他自创一套系统专门预测总统大选结果。

　　Allan Lichtman is a history professor at American University. He created a forecasting method called "13 Keys to the White House" more than 30 years ago and applied to get correct predictions for the past elections from 1984 to 2012.

　　最近，这位神奇教授就2016年美国大选做出了预测——特朗普将险胜!

　　Lichtman recently predicted that Trump will enter the White House by a narrow win.

　　这套神奇的预测系统其实就是13道是非题。李奇曼表示，只要这13道题当中，有6道或者超过6道的答案为“否”，执政党就会输掉大选;反之，他们将继续执政。

　　The "magic" method reveals to be 13 true/false sentences. The historian said if the 13 sentences get six or more falses, then the ruling party will lose, otherwise, the ruling party will get a new 4-year-term.

　　正是基于这13道题， 李奇曼判断，特朗普最终将赢得大选，成为下一任美国总统。不过他自己也承认，今年的总统选举是最难预测的一届。

　　The professor predicted Trump would win the 2016 election based on responses to the 13 keys, however, he personally admitted that the Republican candidate makes this year's game the most unpredictable.

　　所以，究竟是哪13道题呢?一起来看看：

　　1. Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.

　　2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.

　　3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.

　　4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.

　　5. Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.

　　6. Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.

　　7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.

　　8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.

　　9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.

　　10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.

　　11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.

　　12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.

　　13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.